The Cowboys were blown out by the Buffalo Bills in Week 15, snapping their five-game winning streak. Dallas was on a roll, winning seven of eight games since the Week 5 loss to the San Francisco 49ers, a game that was very similar to the Buffalo one. The defense couldn’t stop the opposing offense, and Dak Prescott and the offense couldn’t move the ball.
The Dolphins don’t have the offensive line or defense to pull off the same strategies as the 49ers and the Bills on paper, but the game plan of running the ball, limiting possessions, and pressuring Prescott with a four-man rush isn’t impossible. The Cowboys could easily be a part of another road loss to a top team.
If Dallas is going to avoid that outcome, it won’t be as simple as protecting the QB and stopping the run. They must commit to playing a certain way to help lead to that outcome. If the Dolphins are allowed the chance, they will hurt the Cowboys with their second-ranked rushing attack and a defense with plenty of good playmakers. Here are some things Dallas must accomplish to upset the Dolphins in Miami.
How they win: Stop Miami on third down
Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
The Dolphins are possibly the scariest offense in the NFL. They are fast, and the speed comes from everywhere. Tyreek Hill is shooting for 2,000 receiving yards and his sidekick Jaylen Waddle would be the top option on plenty of teams. Both guys can play outside or in the slot, so the speed is difficult to contain. If the defense decides to sit back and stop the deep ball, then Miami can employ Raheem Mostert or Devon Achane, two of the fastest backs in the league.
The more plays Miami gets to run in a drive, the higher chance one of their speed demons break a big play for a TD. Looking at their four losses, it’s clear how important third-down conversion percentages are to their success.
The Bills held them to 30% on third down. The Philadelphia Eagles only allowed four conversions on 11 attempts. The Kansas City Chiefs only allowed a 25% conversion rate and the Tennessee Titans allowed 31%.
In their four losses, the Dolphins only managed an average of 30% conversions on third down, but in their wins, the number jumps to 53%. Dallas is 17th overall in third-down defense, not elite, but manageable. They allow 38% conversions on the season, but over the last three games they have allowed 56%. If the defense can revert back to form then they could slow down the Dolphins and get a big road victory.
How they lose: Settle for field goals
Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
This is true for many games every week. A team that can only score field goals is a team that loses a lot of games. The bottom five teams in redzone touchdown percentage are the New York Jets, the Tennessee Titans, the New York Giants, the Carolina Panthers, and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Only the Steelers have a .500 record and no other team has more than five wins.
The Dolphins are second in the NFL in touchdown percentage. When they get in the redzone, they score 7 points, not three. Early in the season the Cowboys were not a great redzone offense, but it has picked up lately for them. Dallas was perfect against the Eagles, perfect against the Commander, went six of seven versus the Giants and 50% against the Panthers, Bills and Seattle Seahawks.
The Dallas defense has been struggling lately, so the game could be a shootout. If Prescott and Mike McCarthy can’t leave the redzone with touchdowns they will lose to the high-powered offense of the Dolphins.
How they win: Limit Miami’s possessions
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The things the Cowboys need to accomplish to win this contest all go hand in hand. Getting Miami off the field limits their plays, which lessen the chance the hit on big plays. They need to score touchdowns, not field goals, so that Miami has to try and match them offensively. Limiting possessions would be their next goal because it puts pressure on the Dolphins to have to score every time they touch the ball.
This starts with Dallas running the ball successfully with Tony Pollard. Through his first eight games, Pollard only averaged four yards per carry and wasn’t doing much to escape defenders. He only forced one broken tackle per game and averaged 2.62 yards after contest. In the last six games Pollard has raised his yards per carry to 4.3, his yards after contact to 3.21 and more than tripled his forced missed tackles to nearly four per game. His explosive runs went from eight in 10 games to 10 in six, and he has raised his rushing grade from 65.1 to 85.2.
If the run game is viable, and Dallas can control the clock and the flow of the game, then the next step is not giving Miami extra possessions. This starts with no turnovers.
Dallas can’t afford to put this Miami offense back on the field for extra possessions. Controlling the clock and eliminating turnovers will help Dallas win by limiting possessions, but penalty will be a part of this total strategy as well.
How they lose: Continue to commit penalties
The Cowboys are the most penalized team in the league so far this season with 102, and have the second-most penalty yards at 872. They average 8.5 penalties for 74.5 yards in losses.
The Cowboys have been criticized for not winning big road games, but that is difficult to do when penalties set them back. Against Buffalo, Dallas held the Bills on their first drive, but Demarcus Lawrence commited a personal foul to extend the drive eventually allow a touchdown. An extra four points due to a penalty. Instead of a blocked punt by Sam Williams, he missed the ball and roughed the punter, extending another drive that also ended in a touchdown. That is a 11-point swing to a very good team at their house.
Dallas also had a hold on Tyler Smith take them out of field goal range, a personal foul turn a 3rd-and-19 into an automatic first down, and by that time the game is out of reach. The Dolphins have put up 70 points in a game, so the Cowboys can’t afford to extend a Miami drive or end a drive by their own offense with penalties or they could not only lose but be blown out yet again.
