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Odds to win the MLS Cup: Inter Miami and Messi are 10-to-1


Messi scored in his Inter Miami debut.


MLS is on summer break, so let’s take a look at who’s in shape to lift the MLS Cup.

The latest: FC Cincinnati have deservedly claimed the top spot on the odds board after a superb run of form. Nashville SC remains a solid value play and Inter Miami is worth watching after they signed Lionel Messi. Toronto FC fired Bob Bradley on June 26 but it’s too little, too late for the Reds.



The team leads the league in points (51) and wins (15) and sits fifth in goals scored (30) and second in goal differential (plus-14). This all comes after a season where Cincinnati was a middling fifth in the Eastern Conference.

Cincinnati is balanced offensively, with seven multi-goal scorers on the team. Luciano Acosta is leading the way with 12.

Other MLS Cup choices

Best value: Nashville SC (+1,200)

Nashville was one of the hottest teams in MLS, picking up points in nine straight games. The team has lost five of its last six and has had its odds lengthen from +700 in early June to +1,200 as a result. That’s a solid value.

But we think the international break could do the Music some good. They still sit fourth in the Eastern Conference with 11 wins and five draws in 24 games.

Hany Mukhtar is leading the league with 13 goals but Nashville’s real calling card is its defence. The squad has conceded only 22 goals all season, which is the fewest in the league.

Inter Miami was 200-to-1 to win the MLS Cup — then they signed Lionel Messi.

The team is dead last in the Eastern Conference as of July 23 with five wins and 14 losses in 22 games played and a minus-14 goal differential.

But adding a world-class talent should obviously help turn things around. The Argentine has already scored seven goals in four Leagues Cup games for Inter Miami, including this winner in his debut:

That said, he hasn’t played an MLS game yet and the team will obviously have to make the playoffs to have a chance at the trophy.

Canadian MLS Cup odds

Let’s take a look at the three Canadian teams in MLS and see how they stack up a third of the way through the season:

  • Toronto FC are in shambles and hold the longest odds of any team to win the MLS Cup. The Reds have some of the best top-end talents in MLS with Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Bernardeschi upfront, but they’ve done nothing with the duo all season. Through 24 games, TFC are second-to-last in the Eastern Conference.
  • The Vancouver Whitecaps were 150-to-1 to win this trophy before the season and those odds have shortened slightly. The team was in solid form during June but has lost three of its past four MLS games.
  • CF Montreal were the only Canadian team to make the MLS Cup playoffs last season and that likely won’t be the case this year. Wilfried Nancy — the team’s longtime coach — left for the Columbus Crew over the offseason and through 23 games the team is 9-2-12 with a minus-10 goal differential.

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Avery Perri writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. The Star’s parent company has a minority interest in NorthStar Bets. Follow him on Twitter: @AveryPerri